When PM Modi invited PM Nawaz Sharif of Pakistan for his swearing in
ceremony in Delhi and PM Sharif readily accepted the invite, many people saw it
as a great beginning. A beginning that gave an indication that talks should and
will happen, an indication that there is an intention of developing good
relations between the two leaders and the top brass of the two countries and an
indication that the relationship between two countries will improve.
But slowly that enthusiasm started giving way to despair. The two
countries were seen hardening their stands because of both domestic and
international reasons. And finally the talks were cancelled. Accusations and
counter accusations were flying thick and fast. Trust was a major casualty and
hence the relationships between the leaders and of course the two
countries.
As a student of Negotiations I truly believe that first and foremost
step to resolve any conflict/dispute is to communicate, to talk. The choice
people have is either to fight, go to war etc (which by the way is very
expensive) and then sit across the table to talk and resolve issues or sit
across the table in the first instance and then resolve issues. The answer
should be very obvious and easy but unfortunately in the real world it is not.
We live in an irrational world, where feelings like ego, anger, greed etc and
our own perceptions play an important role in how we handle, react or perceive
things. But if one sits back, relax and think objectively, it becomes very
clear that talking, communicating is the best and should be the first step to
resolve differences.
India and Pakistan have been in continuous tussle for the last almost 70
years. Four wars have already been fought between the two countries. With both
the countries going nuclear, war is not an option at all. We in India will say
that Pakistan is responsible for all the issues and they in Pakistan will say
that India is responsible for everything. And both the countries truly believe
in their positions. We can continue this blame game for another 100 years and
nothing will get resolved, the issues will remain as it is, our relationship
will not improve at all. I fail to understand, what not talking to each other
will achieve. It is high time that both countries give talks/communication as
fair chance. No matter what happens, whatever the provocation, talks should not
stop and they should continue without any interruptions. Both the parties
can decide if the talks will continue through the back channel or front channel
but it should be a continuous process. Another extremely important point is
that the talks should be unconditional. As soon as any party in a negotiation
puts a conditionality to hold or start talks, it will be reciprocated in kind
by the other party and talks will either not start or even if they somehow do, much
won’t come out of it. So the first two prerequisite to resolve the issues
between India and Pakistan is:
1) To have continuous
and uninterrupted talks
2) There should be no
conditions to start the talks
It is very important that
the leaders of the two countries and the negotiation teams of the two countries
develop some kind of a relationship and try and build some trust. Prime
Minister Modi took an extremely good step by landing in Lahore to wish PM Sahrif
on his birthday and then even going to his house to meet his family members on
the occasion of PM Sharif’s granddaughter’s marriage. If such steps are taken
with sincerity, they go a long way in building relationships and helping a
great deal during negotiations. Even when the respective country’s teams meet
during talks, they should try and build a relationship with each other. Talk
about each other, maybe even about each other’s families. If that is difficult,
try and find a common enemy and start the talks from there. The idea is to come
closer to each other, develop a relationship and build trust. Only if you like
somebody, you would give something to the other party. But if the sincerity is
lacking, the other party will see through it and rather than relationship and
trust getting developed it will have an opposite effect. This brings us to the third
point which will help in resolving disputes between India and Pakistan:
3)
Develop a relationship and try to build
trust.
Now with this unfortunate
terrorist attack on the Pathankot Air Force Base in India on 2nd
Jan, 2016 there will be many in India who would want that India should stop the
process of talks and they will pressurise the Govt to cancel the talks. And to
pacify the domestic audience, the Govt might even cancel the talks or put some conditionalities.
There would even be talks of retaliation or taking some action against Pakistan
on the ground. On the contrary, we should now take the path of talks in an even
more aggressive manner.
We as a country are growing.
We are destined to become one of the main economic powers of the world, one of
the super powers of the world. So it is in our own interest to focus fully and
solely on the world, on growth rather than focus on Pakistan. It is in our own
interest to resolve our differences with Pakistan. And for that, talks are the
only option. We might think that we are so big and powerful and we can easily
teach a lesson to Pakistan. And the issues will get resolved easily through
pressure. I am not saying power doesn’t work or hasn’t worked ever but what
results is retaliation in some form, sooner or later. With the biggest economy
in the world, USA, the only super power, can do anything, anywhere with their brute power but still
continue to face resistance and retaliation in so many places. Europe has been
in conflict for so many centuries and obviously it did not help anyone. Finally
they had to give up conflict and move towards collaboration. Today European
Union is a major economic power in the world and one of the most peaceful
places on the planet.
Before I end this blog I
want to draw your attention towards one more important point. In the case of
India and Pakistan and otherwise too, Third Parties play a very important role
in a negotiation. They may not be present on the negotiation table but they
have an extremely large influence on the negotiations. Sooner we identify the
third parties and work towards addressing their concerns the better it is. In
case of Pakistan, the most important third party is the Pakistan Army. No negotiation,
no talks can be successful till the time we understand what does the Army
think, why they think so, what are their concerns and what can we do to address
those. So it is extremely important that we either somehow get the Army’s
representation on the table or somehow hold some kind of parallel talks with
the Army. This would definitely not be easy because the democratically elected
Govt of Pakistan will not appreciate it openly or covertly. They are also aware
of this fact but accepting it in any manner will show them as weak and not in
control of their country. So basically
we have to work with the Govt of Pakistan and make them understand in a clear
manner that no agreement between India and Pakistan is possible till the time
Pak’s Army is on board. Work with the Govt of Pakistan to understand Pak Army’s
concerns, issues, point of view and then think how to address them. Similarly
on the Indian side the political parties in the opposition are a very important
third party, whom any Govt in power in India has to take into confidence. Once
that happens, the Govt has to then work on changing the public opinion and
perception and steer them towards a direction in which the people of India
appreciate and approve the resolution which the Govt is trying to arrive at
with Pakistan. So one more point in trying to resolve the differences between
India and Pakistan is:
4)
To identify Third Parties, their perception,
their concerns and address them
Basically I listed down 4
points which need to be followed if we want to sincerely start to resolve our
disputes with Pakistan. Once we have more or less achieved these points we can
go into further points which will help resolve our disputes with Pakistan. This
is my first in the series of various blogs which I will publish to understand
various issues between India and Pakistan and what should we do to resolve
them. This blog gives the basics or the first few steps of the negotiation
template which we need to follow to resolve the dispute between India and Pakistan.
Ajay Malhotra. 3rd
January, 2016
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